Your FIRE date, as a range
A single FIRE date reads like a promise. Your FIRE goal now shows the range of dates the market could give you, redrawn as you change what you save.
Markets do not move in a straight line, so one FIRE date was never the whole story. Open your FIRE goal and you now see a chart of where your portfolio could be over the years: a shaded band for the middle eight in ten outcomes, a line for the middle of them and a dashed line at your FIRE number.
What you see
- The date the tile already shows, at a steady yearly return.
- The range you reach your number in once the market swings, in 8 of 10 simulations.
- The assumptions behind it, in one line: your yearly return and how bumpy the ride is.
Change your monthly savings or the years of expenses to cover, and the chart moves while you type. It is a quick way to see what saving a little more does to the early end of the range. The same range is one tap away from the calendar icon on the FIRE tile, under See projection.
Where the bumpiness comes from
We measure it from your own history when your portfolio has a year of it. Before that, we estimate it from what you hold, so cash counts as calm and crypto as wild, and the chart says which one it used.
A range is a way to see the odds, not a forecast. Past returns do not promise future ones.